Category Archives: The Health Care Crisis


How They Can Survive and Thrive

For America’s community hospitals, using the traditional cost-shifting revenue model is the maddening equivalent of simultaneously playing rugby, Australian-rules football, major-league baseball, and cricket—dictated by the rules of multiple third-party payers rather than by rational pricing models.  Success is ultimately dependent on having enough privately insured patients to subsidize the government ones and the uninsured. In most places, this model has allowed hospitals to earn sufficient margins to support ongoing capital replacement and growth while staying abreast of technological advances. But in economically stressed locations lacking critical masses of private payers, many institutions have gone broke (including fourteen in Los Angeles, alone, in one recent year). As pressures on cost-shifting intensify under health reform (See Parts 1 & 2), community hospitals will increasingly adopt new coping strategies to survive. Two in particular, consolidation and integration, have become popular in recent years. Unfortunately, neither will fix the problem.

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Employers to the Rescue?

In Part 1, I explained how the only way hospitals have been able to survive their money-losing Medicare and Medicaid patients has been to charge higher rates to private payers. That’s why private insurance now costs $1,788 more per family than it would if the government paid the same provider prices as everyone else. Moreover, health reform’s promised addition of 15 million new Medicaid patients, along with billions of dollars in lower Medicare payments, will drive the demand for private subsidies even higher. Additionally, as the current 27 million individually insured begin transitioning to the insurance exchanges in 2014, their continued ability to pay higher hospital charges is doubtful. Ditto for the 17 million uninsured who are expected to sign up for exchange insurance. Indeed, under health reform, exchange insurers may need their own external financial assistance. That leaves only private, employer-based insurance to pick up the slack by paying ever higher hospital prices. That, too, is unlikely to happen.

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A couple of weeks ago I sent a letter with supporting documentation to the publisher of a local (and mercifully low-circulation) tabloid, the Colorado Springs Business Journal, pointing out material errors in its reporting on my views and activities when I served on a local citizens commission charged with determining the fate of city-owned Memorial Hospital. I never heard back from him, but did exchange subsequent emails and phone calls with his editor, Allen Greenberg, resulting in his agreement to make limited corrections of some of the more blatant misstatements in reporter Amy Gillentine’s article. Nonetheless, the original, uncorrected article remains on the paper’s website, and my Google search of the promised language fails to find it anywhere. Unsurprisingly, I don’t read the paper itself, so missed any printed notice that may have appeared.

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Dear Readers,

I need your help (and no, it’s not a request for money).

The attorneys general (AGs) in at least 14 states (Colorado, Louisiana, Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Nebraska, Texas, Pennsylvania, Washington, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota,Idaho, and Indiana) have joined together to challenge the constitutionality of the just-passed federal mandate that will require all documented American residents to purchase health insurance beginning in 2014. As a former health insurance actuary, I support this challenge on the basis of my extensive analysis and conclusion that there are voluntary alternatives to mandates that will be even more effective at providing universal health insurance access while preventing the adverse selection (i.e., free-riding) that would otherwise destroy any universally available health insurance exchange like that specified by the federal law.

Posted in Health Insurance, The Health Care Crisis | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment


One of President Obama’s most frequent health reform mantras is, “If you like your health care plan, you can keep your health care plan.”  This is consistent with his belief that we “must build on the current employer-based system” that insures 158 million people who comprise the vast bulk of all privately insured Americans. There is just one problem with this approach: employer-provided group insurance is dying and cannot be saved. Despite its longstanding dominance, group insurance, whether self-funded or provided by outside insurers, suffers from major flaws that are increasingly exposing its fundamental unsuitability as an even partial solution for effective health care reform. This is true for all employers, no matter what size. Here are group insurance’s more pronounced shortcomings:

1.    Lack of Portability: Group insurance ties the individual to his or her job, an anachronism in an era when people change their jobs as often as their cars. And if you lose your job through layoffs or illness, you soon lose your insurance as well. If you can’t find affordable individual coverage, then welcome to the ranks of the uninsured.

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As part of his last-ditch effort to revive the Senate’s undead health reform bill, President Obama has proposed a federal board to veto health insurance premiums it finds “unreasonable and unjustified.” In case you’re wondering, all 50 states already do this, albeit with the countervailing requirement that premiums must also be “adequate” to assure insurance carrier solvency—a key requirement the President ignores.

His proposal is the obvious result of his Administration’s high dudgeon over Wellpoint’s 39% individual premium hikes in California (where it has lost millions). The argument is that such increases are unconscionable from an industry that earned “$12 billion in profits last year.” Please note the inapt comparison of percentages with dollars, a diversionary, demagogic tactic often used to enrage the innumerate while failing to note Wellpoint’s 2009 operating profit margin of 4.8% or the entire industry’s hopelessly pedestrian 2.2%. Even more absurd was one congresswoman’s snarky suggestion that the real reason for the increases was to maintain WellPoint CEO Angela Braly’s $9 million annual compensation—equal to twenty-eight cents per member per year. The cause of premium increases is not profits or executive compensation. To paraphrase President Clinton, “It’s rising medical costs, stupid!”

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Scott Brown won the Massachusetts senate race by promising to derail the Democrats’ congressional health reform locomotive, a victory that has also thrust his biggest supporter, Mitt Romney, back into the national spotlight. The irony is that, as state senator, Brown helped pass then-Governor Romney’s remarkably similar 2006 state health overhaul. Despite Mr. Romney’s statement at the time that “Every uninsured citizen in Massachusetts will soon have affordable health insurance and the costs of health care will be reduced,” his RomneyCare milestone threatens to become a politically costly millstone for his 2012 presidential prospects—or so says Kimberley Strassel of the Wall Street Journal.

The Massachusetts program has used the carrot of generous premium subsidies and the stick of mandated individual coverage to reduce its uninsured population from about 10% pre-reform to 5.1% (Census Bureau estimate) or 2.6% (Massachusetts estimate) last year. Unfortunately, it has failed to contain costs, with insurance premiums continuing to increase considerably faster than the CPI.

Posted in Government vs Markets, Health Costs, Health Insurance, Health Reform Goals, The Health Care Crisis | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments


Cable news is jammed with horrific stories of widespread destruction and disarray caused by an unpredictable calamity that struck with sudden, unstoppable force, thrusting many who were already sorely beleaguered into chaos and desperate disarray. Hurried rescue missions failed to prevent widespread pain and suffering. Such is life for the Democrats following the Massachusetts special election. Tip O’Neill was misquoted. All politics is loco. The big question now is whether the Mass. disaster presages a mass disaster for the Dems come November.

Posted in Government vs Markets, Health Costs, Health Insurance, Health Reform Goals, The Health Care Crisis | Tagged , , , , | 4 Comments


There’s a common delusion making the rounds of Congress and The New York Times that says we must force employers to pay more of their employees’ health insurance costs in order to reduce the workers’ financial burdens. The problem is that employer insurance payments are simply one component of total employee compensation. Arbitrarily increasing this part will necessarily cut the funds available for wages and salaries. Mandating such behavior would constitute nothing less than an enforced reduction in worker pay for a government-favored use, i.e., to support a wasteful, inflationary, mediocre-quality medical system. Any way you cut it, the employer mandate burden would be borne squarely by America’s workers under the disingenuous guise of employer responsibility. Every reputable economist knows this. So do our cynical, dissembling members of Congress.

They would have us believe that the modern philosopher’s stone called legislation will magically make one plus one equal three. That’s the essence of the two Senate health reform bills and the House’s own 2000-page orgy of excess (HR-3962) that would exact penalties from employers that don’t provide enough health insurance.

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Thursday’s (10/08/09) much heralded CBO report telling us that the Senate Finance Committee health care reform bill will cut the federal deficit by $81 billion over the next ten years is a diversion at best and accounting fiction at worst. Any way you slice it, this health reform bill is going to cost you more.

First of all, any second year accounting student could drive a homecoming float through the loopholes in the CBO’s numbers. Just one example: the analysis includes ten years of increased government taxes and fees, but only six years of health reform expenses. It also assumes that Medicare will cut Medicare doctor fees by a whopping 25% in 2011 and then make below-inflation-rate adjustments after that. The reality is that the Congress has scheduled cuts every year since 2003 but has cancelled them all at the last minute in the face of massive physician lobbying. But what if this time is different and these cuts actually do go through? If past is prologue, then doctors will simply intensify what many have already done in the face of Medicare’s increasingly punitive reimbursement rates:

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